Canada is seeing its largest retirement wave as fertility rate plummets
加拿大生育率骤降，正迎来史上最大规模退休潮
A silver tsunami is headed for Canada with all baby boomers set to hit retirement age by 2030, with far-reaching implications for Canada’s economy and labour market, a new RBC report says. The RBC report comes as Statistics Canada said in a separate report Wednesday that Canada’s fertility rate reached record lows in 2024. The boomer retirement wave, which started in 2011 when the oldest boomers turned 65, will reach its peak by the end of this decade, the Royal Bank of Canada report said. By 2024, two-thirds of all boomers had reached retirement age.
加拿大皇家银行（RBC）一份新报告指出，加拿大正面临一场 “银发海啸”—— 到 2030 年，婴儿潮一代将全部达到退休年龄，这将对加拿大经济和劳动力市场产生深远影响。而就在这份报告发布之际，加拿大统计局周三发布的另一份报告显示，2024 年加拿大生育率已降至历史最低水平。加拿大皇家银行的报告称，婴儿潮一代的退休潮始于 2011 年（当时年龄最大的婴儿潮一代年满 65 岁），并将在本十年末（2020-2029 年）达到峰值。到 2024 年，三分之二的婴儿潮一代已达到退休年龄。
“Remaining boomers will reach age 65 by 2030, bringing the largest retirement wave yet,” RBC economist Cynthia Leach said in the report. While in the short term, Canada is seeing high unemployment amid the trade war with the United States, the RBC report said the unemployment rate could be peaking soon. “A structural reduction in labour supply will be felt more acutely across the economy. It means that despite current labour market weakness, Canada must prepare for tomorrow’s tighter market,” Leach said in the report.
加拿大皇家银行经济学家辛西娅・利奇在报告中表示：“剩余的婴儿潮一代将在 2030 年前年满 65 岁，由此带来史上规模最大的退休潮。” 报告指出，尽管短期内加拿大在美国发起的贸易战背景下失业率居高不下，但失业率可能即将见顶。利奇在报告中补充道：“劳动力供给的结构性减少将对整个经济产生更为显著的影响。这意味着，尽管当前劳动力市场疲软，加拿大仍需为未来更紧张的市场形势做好准备。”
The high levels of migration Canada saw in the last decade will not be enough to offset the gaps in the labour market, the report added. This is because of the “federal government’s current in-migration policy reversal.” “Near-zero population growth is expected in 2026 and 2027 under new and drastically lower targets. Annual average growth between 2020 and 2027 would be barely above the 2010-2019 average,” the report said. RBC is predicting a two per cent decrease in labour force participation between 2024 and 2030. This would exceed the drop of the last 14 years, “meaning Canada will face the peak impact of boomers on the labour force.”
报告还提到，加拿大过去十年的高移民水平不足以填补劳动力市场的缺口，原因在于 “联邦政府当前的移民政策出现了逆转”。报告称：“在大幅调低的新目标下，2026 年和 2027 年加拿大人口预计将接近零增长。2020 年至 2027 年的年均人口增长率将仅略高于 2010 年至 2019 年的平均水平。” 加拿大皇家银行预测，2024 年至 2030 年期间，加拿大劳动力参与率将下降 2%，这一降幅将超过过去 14 年的下降幅度，“意味着加拿大将面临婴儿潮一代对劳动力市场的最大冲击”。
