What would a shutdown mean for America’s economy?
政府关门对美国经济意味着什么？
With hours to go before a possible government shutdown, Democrats and Republicans are right back where they started: blaming the other side for their intransigence. A White House meeting between the president and Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, the top Democrats in Congress, failed to yield any compromise. “We’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,” lamented J.D. Vance, the vice-president. “There are still large differences between us,” retorted Mr Schumer.
距离可能的政府停摆仅剩几个小时，民主党和共和党又一次回到原点：互相指责对方顽固不化。总统与国会民主党领袖查克·舒默和哈基姆·杰弗里斯在白宫的会面未能达成任何妥协。美国副总统万斯感叹道：“我们正走向停摆，因为民主党拒绝做正确的事。” 舒默则反驳道：“我们之间依然存在巨大分歧。”
Federal agencies will start to run out of money at 12.01am, local time, on Wednesday. Some of the most visible effects will include the closure of agencies, national parks and museums. Federal workers will have their pay frozen, including those who have to stay on the job, like the armed forces or air-traffic controllers. Social Security and Medicare payments, which are considered “mandatory” spending, will keep going, although cheques could be delayed.
联邦机构的资金将在当地时间周三凌晨12点01分耗尽。政府停摆最明显的后果之一将是政府机构、国家公园和博物馆的关闭。联邦雇员的薪水将被冻结，即便是那些必须继续工作的群体，例如军队或空中交通管制员。被视为“强制性”支出的社会保障和医保款项将继续发放，但支付款项可能会出现延迟。
It is easy to think that this particular failure of governance is happening more often. Yet far fewer shutdowns have taken place in the past two decades than in the 1980s and 1990s. And though recent shutdowns have tended to last longer—such as the record 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019 during Donald Trump’s first term—their economic impact seems to have been limited. That may well be the case this time, but there are a few wrinkles in today’s American economy that complicate things. A shutdown would probably mean that important economic statistics, most notably employment figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), which are due out on October 3rd, are delayed.
人们很容易觉得这种治理失败似乎越来越频繁。然而，过去20年发生的政府停摆次数远少于20世纪80年代和90年代。尽管最近的停摆往往持续时间更长——例如特朗普第一任期内2018至2019年创纪录的35天停摆——但其经济影响似乎有限。这次情况也可能如此，但当今美国经济中有一些新问题让事情更复杂。政府停摆很可能导致重要经济数据的推迟发布，最显著的是原定于10月3日公布的劳工统计局（BLS）的就业数据。
